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One of
the oldest world markets
The exchange rate expresses a ratio between two currencies. It is an age-old
market; people have been trading for millennia, and the ability to change
one currency into another is an essential tool. The traders whom Jesus
threw out of the Temple in Jerusalem were money-changers, or currency
traders, as we would say today. In the Middle Ages, princes and free cities
laid down the rates at which foreign coins were to be exchanged. Hand
in hand with currency trading comes the need to record details about the
various rates of exchange. For example, the records of the "proveditori
degli cambiatori", the supervisors of the money-changers in Florence,
contain revealing details about exchange rates in the Renaissance. Every
day, at the closure of the "Mercato Nuovo", the New Market, these supervisors
recorded the rates offered by the money-changers. The profit margin of
the changers lay in the difference between the buying and selling price
of gold and silver; the price for buying silver was higher than for selling
it. Later, when currency trading had assumed international dimensions,
international bankers made a profit out of variations in the rate from
place to place and from time to time. Today, too, the currency-trader's
profit resides in the gap between the buying and selling rates of currencies.
The currency market has always been a market for out-and-out professionals.
In the past, investors more or less had to be millionaires to enter the
market; nowadays 100,000 is enough. It's an exclusive market, in which
big investors have incomparably better chances than individuals.
20 dollars
and you're in!
Michael Kishara lives in Africa. He takes tourists on safaris to see the
magnificent landscape and wildlife of his country. For his services, he
gets tips now and then, sometimes 10 United States dollars, sometimes
$20. What should he do with the money, if he doesn't need it for everyday
living? Banks hardly offer any interest, you need large sums to invest
in any ordinary markets, and gambling is too risky. But Michael is smart
and would like to make his money grow. And today, he can do just that
- at oanda.com, the Internet firm of Olsen & Associates. With Internet
access, Michael can open an account with his $20 at www.oanda.com,
transfer the money with his credit card, and immediately be able to invest
in the currency market up to a limit of $400. At oanda, Michael can work
with 20 times as much money as he's got in his account. For example, he
could put his $400 against the yen. Assuming interest of 5% for the dollar
and 0.5% for the yen, Michael could make a profit of 4.5% on the difference
in interest. Eighteen US dollars a year, for a stake of $20, would not
be bad business at all. If the worst comes to the worst, Michael can only
lose his initial investment; oanda closes his account as soon as the margin
sinks below 2.5%. And he makes maximum profit from the interest, as oanda
pays continuous interest whereas other firms only pay interest once per
day. "Fantastic - at oanda I get the same conditions as professionals
and big investors," says Michael. Oanda offers a product with small profit
margins - thanks to the Internet and computerisation, it all runs automatically,
cutting costs to a minimum. The more people trade in currencies through
oanda - in other words, the larger the volume of trade - the smaller oanda
can keep the spread (the gap between "ask" and "buy", between selling
and buying price).
Making
money without money?
"That sounds as if a poor lone fighter like me could get the same conditions
as a big firm, as if I could buy my goods at the prices normally only
supermarkets get offered," says Michael. But in fact oanda offers a platform
that heralds a unique democratisation of currency trading. Anyone can
join in here and make money. Someone who wants to invest $20 or $100 will
find at oanda the same conditions as a big investor investing a million.
That's a real revolution in a market that's always been more or less exclusively
for professionals. And if Michael transfers money into his account at
oanda by credit card, he can even invest initially without any money at
all, since he only has to pay his credit-card account at the end of the
month. In between, the unbelievable, fairytale dream of "making money
without money" comes true. But investing in oanda is not a lottery. To
make a profit, and to work with small sums of money, takes knowledge.
And knowledge is just what oanda has to offer: the largest data bank on
currencies, a forecasting service and other instruments to help investors
to make the right decisions. But it's the investors themselves who have
to make those decisions, including our friend Michael Kishara.
A vision
with a scientific background
"Yesterday a man from Alaska transferred $200. And he gets a turnover
of $150,000 one day, next day $100,000 - it's just fantastic!" says Richard
Olsen when asked how things are going. He's a co-founder of the Olsen
Group, the largest data bank in the currency-trading field and market
leader in scientific research into currency markets, and has quite a story
to tell about his vision, which is just in the process of turning into
reality. With oanda.com, Olsen offers an instrument that enables anyone
with Internet access to play an active part in the currency market. This
is a terrific innovation with a solidly-researched background. Even while
still at school, Richard Olsen was always someone who wanted to change
things. At an early age he asked "Why do banks operate in such an unscientific
way?" As a lawyer and economist, he was deeply dissatisfied with the way
the markets worked, especially the currency market. In his view, despite
the enormous globalisation of the market in the last few years, the currency
market was still not liquid enough. As a currency specialist, he was unhappy
about the fact that the range of participants in the market had decreased
in recent years due to the many amalgamations of firms and banks, for
example Allianz Insurance and the Dresdener Bank in Germany. For Richard
Olsen, a liquid market is the core of a healthy economy. He sees the currency
market as the heart of the economy: "Are we aware of the fact that a healthy
heart, which we hardly notice at all, pumps 400 litres of blood an hour?
That's liquidity for you!" he says. In his view, the health of the market
is grounded in the variety of its participants and in maximum liquidity.
His vision, and the platform he offers for realising that vision, in the
form of oanda, is the result of a thoroughgoing analysis of the market.
The Olsen Data Bank collects over 10,000 data points per currency per
day. Its staff of 50, mostly mathematicians and physicists, carry out
research into the laws of the currency market. "The market is not something
God-given, but something that is formed by people." This philosophical
attitude gives Olsen the energy to take the first step in the direction
of an ideal currency market with oanda.
It's time
for a rethink
Our economic thinking is stuck in the 18th century. At that time, the
economist Adam Smith looked for arguments with which to attain a liberalisation
of the markets in the British Empire, which were strictly controlled.
The economic potential represented by Britain's overseas territories could
only be utilised, he said, by freeing trade and the financial markets
from restrictions. Smith argued that all participants in the market behave
in basically the same way. We are now living in the 21st century. The
age of colonies is long past, but business still thinks in Smith's categories.
Richard Olsen proposes a different view of things. For example, one can
also assume that there are groups on the world market that act and react
in quite different ways, for example in respect of their time-scales.
An investor with long-term interests acts differently from one who thinks
in the short term. An analysis of the behaviour of different groups of
market participants reveals a sequence of reactions which can form the
basis of forecasting-models for the development of the market. A healthy
market is characterised by the great variety of its participants. And
variety brings great opportunities. If one currency enters a crisis, as
did the Turkish lira recently, and if all market participants behave identically,
that currency will collapse completely, because everyone will sell it
and no one will buy it. But a market with a variety of participants is
better protected, both against excessive rises and against panic selling
and collapsing rates. The more varied the market, the smaller the fluctuations.
A short-term crisis may be an opportunity for a long-term investor - but
only for him.
Interest
payments every second
Oanda's FX Trade Platform has introduced a further innovation. Interest
is paid every second, as one would expect in this digital age. This is
a sharp contrast to current practices of banks, who pay interest every
24 hours. For a typical bank account, in which the changes in balance
are small and rates of interest low, it does not matter much whether interest
is paid once a day or once a second. But things are quite different on
the currency market. This practice of daily interest payments produces
additional fluctuations in exchange rates. Since interest payments are
made overnight, investors can only profit from differences in interest
between currencies if they keep their positions open overnight. Shorter
currency positions, such as those covering a few hours, receive no interest
payments. For example, if the Turkish central bank wants to support the
lira by raising exchange rates, only long-term investors, in other words
those who keep their positions open overnight, can profit from that. Short-term
investors, who hold their positions only for a few hours, and who account
for over 90 per cent of the volume of trade, receive no interest payments.
In a system with daily interest payments, interest-rate changes by the
central bank can only influence long-term investors. On the oanda platform,
things are quite different. Here, interest is calculated continuously.
That makes it possible to profit from differences of rate over a matter
of hours. In Turkey, the central bank had to raise interest rates in February
2001 to over 8000 per cent to support the currency. Nine banks went into
liquidation. With a system of continuous interest payments, the distortions
on the market would have been smaller and the economic damage less, since
interest-rate changes would have affected all participants on the market.
So good
that it's easy to get hooked!
What oanda.com offers individual investors sounds convincing. Among other
things, it offers the chance to open an account with a small amount of
money, to work with 20 times that amount, to pay for a small spread, and
receive continuous interest payments - all without paperwork! And on top
of that, lots of data that act as a weather forecast for the currency
market. And in the near future, box options will be offered. With oanda,
Richard Olsen offers his customers a high-tech product. "It's as beautiful,
and it works as perfectly, as a Swiss watch!" he says ecstatically. The
main danger in his product, as he sees it, is the temptation to get hooked
on it: "People might want to spend all their time in oanda on the currency
market, playing roulette in their everyday lives, with only limited risks."
Olsen's vision for the future embraces a huge increase in the number of
participants: from 1000 to 10,000, then 100,000. In five years it ought
to be possible to trade through oanda by mobile phone, anywhere and any
time - a fascinating prospect! And by the way, oanda is strictly not for
money-launderers, as it's not subject to banking secrecy laws.
What the
museum director thinks
Apart from being the abbreviation for the Olsen Group, "oanda", according
to Richard Olsen, is also a Turkish word meaning "immediate response".
"Is that coincidence, or is there a deeper meaning to it?" the director
of the MoneyMuseum asks himself. Yet again experience has shown that innovations
are most likely to be made by outsiders or individuals than by large systems,
which are more cumbersome and thus unable to react quickly. Oanda offers
a product that fulfils a long-expressed wish of buyers, and which has
now become reality thanks to the innovative energy of Richard Olsen and
his team. Oanda promotes democracy and individual initiative. And if you
want to make money, almost without using any money - there's no better
opportunity than oanda!
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